I recently received the e-mail from a reader, in response to some of my earlier posts about probate investors. I'm going to print it in its entirety, and then respond to a few points:
Having read several of your posts, I find many of your comments to be insightful and interesting. Although I agree with 90 to 95 percent of your comments, I disagree with a few of them in “Probate Investors Go Nutso!” and “Ads for Cremation Society of Illinois, J.G. Banks”. And I'd like to take a moment to present my rebuttal with an investor's slant.
First, I disagree with your supposition (in the prior post) that everyone “who attend seminars (like this one) and then try to launch careers buying real estate in probate for pennies on the dollar, flipping the real estate, and becoming rich.” You imply the idea of investing in real estate in probate would only appeal to someone who is already neither wealthy nor involved in real estate. I also find your comment to be somewhat biased and disingenuous: you imply the investor's motive to profit from investing in probate estates is ignoble; yet, you also profit from investing (your time and other resources) in probate estates--but your motive is noble. Real-estate flipping is a bona fide business. Most entrepreneurs start businesses to earn profits—not to go broke. Many—possibly most--attorneys, who practice law, don't practice for free; rather, they operate their businesses for profit—as do many consultants (myself included), physicians, auto mechanics, restauranteurs, etc. Businesses, that don't turn profits, don't remain in business for much longer. Thus, there's nothing inherently wrong with one trying earn a profit.
Second, technically, anyone who purchases anything in the US will make that purchase for pennies on the dollar—even if the purchase is at full price. From your statement, it appears you disapprove of the investors trying to purchase property at a discount (or wholesale prices). Investors aren't the only ones who purchase products and services from their suppliers at wholesale prices, add value, and resale the end products at retail prices (for a profit). Buy low, and sell high . . . and . . . profit on the buy, and realize it on the sale . . . these are two important mantras in business. Most manufacturers, physicians, educators, farmers, car-dealer owners, etc purchase at least a portion of their supplies at wholesale prices; and they sell their products/services at retail prices too. So, why single out the investor for trying to do the same? Note, it's usually the investor—not the others (realtors, contractors, attorneys, etc)—who puts his/her/their cash/credit on the line to acquire the property. The others--including the attorney(s)--usually get their money upfront and assume little or no risk; whereas, the investor usually assumes most—if not all—of the risk and gets paid on the back-end. Here, yet another mantra in business, called the risk/reward relationship, is at work: that investor assumes more risk upfront hoping to receive a greater reward on the back-end. Thus, there's nothing inherently wrong with one trying to earn a profit by buying low and selling high.
Third, most investors will gladly offer to pay a higher price for properties in better condition, because they have to spend less upfront to make it marketable. Since the market basically determines the sales price (a resistance) of a residential property, the only way for an investor to ensure that a rehab won't go over-budget is to offer a lower purchase price. (I'll elaborate later on how skilled investors determines their purchase price.) Continuing, you might wonder what kind of value does a real-estate investor add to a property. An investor adds value by doing the following: 1) buy properties that most retail buyers won't; 2) hire/manage several teams to rehabilitate, market, and sell a property (retail); 3) pay taxes (for properties that might otherwise remain abandoned); 4) work with the urban planners in various communities to help revitalize various neighborhoods by eliminating eyesores—which helps to preserve/improve property values—therein; etc. So, you see investors are a valuable member of the real-estate food-chain; they function primarily as facilitators, and they deserve to be paid for their contributions too. Thus, there's nothing inherently wrong with one trying to earn a profit while making positive contributions to various communities.
Of course, some might argue that the rehabs or new development could possibly gentrify a neighborhood—but that's another topic for another time.
Fourth, I disagree with your supposition (in the latter post) that investors will “purchase real property owned by probate estates at deep discounts, and then flip this property for a hefty profit.” You also mentioned later, that you rejected several offers from investors citing, “their offers (none exceeding $100,000 for a house valued at about $160,000) were simply unacceptable.” Although that discount typically includes a profit, that discount isn't the profit—rather it's the margin (sells price – cost). Those investors offered to purchase that property roughly at 62.5% (or less) of its market value (aka After Repair Value [ARV]). Based on your numbers, I suspect those investors expected to spend at least $50K-$55K on that property. Had you accepted the offer at $100K, that investor most likely would have received a profit of $5K-$10K (of that 37.5% [$60K] margin). The rest of that margin (aka the costs) would go towards fees: legal, document recording, banking, tax, environment tests, pest control, security, theft, weather-related expenses (flooding, down power lines, burst pipes, etc), appraisal, inspection, ALTA survey, marketing/sales, staging, title, insurance, cost of money (points, interest, draws, deposits, etc), utilities, licenses/permits, use changes, on-site property and project management, clean-up, trash removal (ie dumpster), accounting, and repairs (materials and labor). The ones foolish enough to purchase properties without a sufficient margin, will get burned in the end. I'm sure that anyone who's watched several episodes of “Flip This House”, will have seen several amateur (and a few pro) flippers come up short for that very reason. Thus, there's nothing inherently wrong with one trying to preserve one's profit by setting a reasonable operating margin.
Fifth, you state, “probate estates are not typically administered over a 10-year or 20-year period; instead, we're usually talking about 1 year or possibly 2 years of administration.” Although I agree executors typically don't administer them for 10 or 20 years, I also know the national average runs closer to 9-18 months if there are no will contests, and 2+ years otherwise—the duration is affected by the size and complexity of the estate, the number of will contests, taxes, etc. (I've verified this independently with several attorneys, circuit-court staff, bank mangers, and financial planners.) Typically, legal fees, taxes, mortgage payments, etc continue to accrue--and possibly compound or escalate--over that time (assuming the life insurance and other POD funds won't resolve the outstanding liabilities in the probate estate)—especially if the estate is large and complex. Additionally, your comment (later in that paragraph) about the notion of "the time value of money," presents an overly simplistic example, and fails to account for the fact that the probate judge (in many jurisdictions) usually has to approve the sale of any real property in the probate estate. What if that $160K property needed $50K of repairs (due to several problems caused by a faulty foundation [cause by flooding]), was refinanced 8 months ago for $160K at 7% 30-year fixed mortgage (monthly payments would be $1064.48), had 6 heirs squabbling over it for their “fair share” of that property (but who didn't want or couldn't afford to pay for any of the repairs)? I seriously doubt you'd sell that house in that condition to a well-informed, retail buyer for $160K. Besides, most conventional lenders—even during the real-estate boom—would not fund this deal at $160K. There are 2 reasons why a property won't sell: 1) the property is ugly, or 2) its price is ugly. That property in that condition is already upside-down (worth less than its mortgage), and would most likely become a short-sell candidate. Yet, even if that property were completely paid off instead, then the executor would still end up selling it for less than $160K due to the other issues. The point is, as long as that property remains a part of the estate, it will continue to decrease the value of the estate every month (due to its holding costs). Thus, there's nothing inherently wrong with one (an attorney, a funeral-home director, an investor, etc) trying to earn a profit and help someone else out of this kind of predicament.
Yet, I do feel it's wrong for one to prey upon the ignorance of others. It would be highly unethical—and criminal in some cases—to “tweak” the results of an appraisal. Besides, it's not like the seller couldn't also order an appraisal to validate the other results. An as-is appraisal will determine the value of the property in its current shape, and a subject-to appraisal will determine its value after XYZ repairs have been made. The point is that there are lots of checks and balances already in place to help prevent a potential buyer and seller from exploiting one another—at least in the residential market. Things are somewhat different for commercial real-estate, because both the buyers and sellers are considered to be more sophisticated. Nevertheless, most commercial buyers and sellers are capable of conducting a thorough due diligence on a property to ensure that neither party is trying to exploit the other party.
Anyway, investors aren't the enemy. Ignorance and knee-jerk reactions are the enemies. Actually, the consultant in me loved the way you summarized the steps “to find probate estates that may own real estate”; however, I'd reduce those three into a single step: collaborate/partner with with one or more probate attorneys--of course, they'll need to resolve any conflicts of interest beforehand. Provided the executor and probate attorney like/trust working with that investor, they all could agree to collaborate together on other projects in the future. For example, that investor (leveraging his/her/their network) could offer to help the executor to set up a Starker (or 1031) Exchange—which will enable the executor to legally defer payment on capital gains tax on his/her portion of the proceeds from sale of the property in probate—using the proceeds to purchase something like a cash-flowing, multi-unit, commercial property, and of course include the probate attorney in on the deal. Besides the tax savings, the executor and probate attorney will receive more tax savings (tax deductions due to depreciation [39 years for commercial properties]), higher ROI (more than they'd get saving that cash in the bank, or investing that cash in stocks/bonds/etc)--basically “Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money!” This creates a win-win situation for everybody, and that's only the tip of the iceberg.
1. I don't think it's ignoble to make money in a probate situation -- that's obviously the line of work that I'm in, and for which I get paid. I don't begrudge anyone the right to earn a living. What I object to are sharp practices, where someone is trying to mislead an unsophisticated person into doing something stupid. And yes, this is partially the unsophisticated person's fault. (Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Person X is wrong for taking on a loan he can't afford, and lender Y is wrong for selling that loan to person X just to make a profit.) But, in the estate context, we're also talking about convincing someone to do something contrary to law (to violate a fiduciary duty). I can't get behind that (and, to be fair, neither can the writer).
2. Investors are free to try to buy real estate at wholesale prices. The problem is that, in many cases, they aren't in a wholesale market -- they're in a retail market. Someone making a 100K offer for a house with a fair market value of 160K is insulting the seller, and wasting the seller's time and his own.
Of course, there can be a disagreement between seller and potential buyer regarding fair market value -- real estate valuation is not an exact science. To take the example I mentioned in my J.G. Banks post: I was offered 100K for the house (which I thought was worth 170K), and the house eventually sold (3 months later) for 170K.
3. The reader is correct in saying that I shouldn't generalize about real estate investors. I will say that my interactions with them have been uniformly unsatisfying. That's not because the investors are greedy (EVERYONE is greedy), but because the ones I've met have shown themselves to be less than competent. They could've probably talked me down to 160K on the above property, done 30K or so of (mostly cosmetic) work, and flipped the property for maybe 225K. Instead, I get the ham-handed letter of interest ("so sorry for your loss..."), and then a laughably low-ball offer. I understand the risks that an investor is taking, but as a seller, those risks aren't my problem. I hope that, in the future, I will regular investors as well as all other potential buyers. But I will always insist on fair market value.
4. I disagree with this line: "the probate judge (in many jurisdictions) usually has to approve the sale of any real property in the probate estate." In Illinois, at least, I'd say that 95% or more estates are run in independent administration. That means a judge will OK anything and everything as long as the estate beneficiaries sign off on it.